Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.0 (-115/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 24.0 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The Jaguars rank as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 62.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the most plays run out of all the games this week at 139.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Marvin Jones has compiled far fewer air yards this year (72.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).
Marvin Jones's 39.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 53.5.
Marvin Jones has posted quite a few less receiving yards per game (34.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
Marvin Jones's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.5% to 56.3%.

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