Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Jaguars are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 43.4 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: most in football.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Tennessee Titans defense has surrendered the most receiving yards per game in football (197.0) to WRs this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Marvin Jones has accumulated quite a few less air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).
Marvin Jones's 43.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.
Marvin Jones has compiled a lot fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
Marvin Jones's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.5% to 55.4%.

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