Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 31.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

Marvin Jones has compiled far fewer air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).
Marvin Jones's 43.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.
Marvin Jones has notched substantially fewer receiving yards per game (37.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
Marvin Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.5% to 58.1%.
Marvin Jones has been among the least efficient pass-catchers in football, averaging a mere 7.02 yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 10th percentile among WRs

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