Marvin Jones Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Marvin Jones

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM EST

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 42.5 (-101/-131).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 41.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 42.5 @ -101.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars as the 6th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Marvin Jones has been less involved as a potential target this season (82.9% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (93.4%).
Marvin Jones has totaled significantly fewer receiving yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (51.0).
Marvin Jones's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.4% to 55.9%.
Marvin Jones has been among the least efficient receivers in football, averaging a measly 6.65 yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 10th percentile among wide receivers
Marvin Jones has been among the worst wide receivers in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.30 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 13th percentile.

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