Marvin Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 15, 2022 4:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+299/-529).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -494 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -529.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Marvin Jones to be much more involved in his team's pass attack near the end zone this week (21.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.7% in games he has played).
Marvin Jones has accrued far more air yards this season (89.0 per game) than he did last season (84.0 per game).
Marvin Jones's 48.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 78th percentile for wideouts.
The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 3rd-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

Marvin Jones's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 63.4% to 59.0%.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in football (62.9%) versus wideouts this year (62.9%).
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 8th-least TDs through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.60 per game this year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.