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Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Houston Texans

Marvin Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+264/-440).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -349 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -440.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to call the 6th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Marvin Jones to be a more integral piece of his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (20.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.5% in games he has played).

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

The Houston Texans safeties grade out as the 5th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.56 seconds before getting pressured (5th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jaguars are a huge 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Marvin Jones has accrued significantly fewer air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (84.0 per game).

Marvin Jones's 43.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.

Marvin Jones's possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 63.4% to 58.1%.

More Marvin Jones Player Props

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