Marvin Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 4:55 PM EST

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+262/-434).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Marvin Jones has posted a colossal 85.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wideouts.
Marvin Jones's 52.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in football: 84th percentile for wide receivers.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has surrendered the 3rd-most passing TDs in football to wideouts: 1.17 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Jacksonville Jaguars have called the 4th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 59.9 plays per game.
Marvin Jones has been not been very involved his team's offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among wide receivers.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (61.2%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (61.2%).
The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.