My Account Log Out

reorder

Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 13

Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Marvin Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+299/-529).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -527 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -529.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 4th-most in the league.

The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.

The Detroit Lions pass defense has allowed the 10th-highest Completion% in the league (68.5%) to wide receivers this year (68.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Marvin Jones has compiled far fewer air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (84.0 per game).

Marvin Jones's 43.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 53.5.

Marvin Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.5% to 58.1%.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on just 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their plays since the start of last season (8th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

More Marvin Jones Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™