Marvin Jones Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Marvin Jones

WR · Jacksonville Jaguars

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Marvin Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+246/-398).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +258 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +246.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Jaguars are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Marvin Jones to be a much bigger part of his team's pass game near the goal line this week (18.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (11.6% in games he has played).
Marvin Jones has put up a whopping 85.0 air yards per game this year: 87th percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

Marvin Jones's possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 63.4% to 55.9%.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks project as the 10th-best CB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have faced a stacked the box on a mere 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.