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Marvin Jones

Marvin Jones Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 1

Washington Commanders vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Marvin Jones Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+253/-413).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -361 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -413.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.

The Jacksonville Jaguars offense has played at the 4th-fastest pace in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, averaging 25.82 seconds per play.

Marvin Jones has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 29.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among WRs.

Marvin Jones has notched a colossal 84.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among wide receivers.

Marvin Jones's 53.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 84th percentile for wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have utilized motion in their offense on 33.0% of their play-calls since the start of last season (9th-least in the league), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.

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