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Marquise Goodwin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+125/-160).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Seahawks are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in the NFL (68.7%) versus WRs this year (68.7%).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Seattle Seahawks have called the 4th-least plays in the league this year, totaling a lowly 53.3 plays per game.Marquise Goodwin's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 23.6.Marquise Goodwin has been among the most unreliable receivers in the league, completing a mere 54.5% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 25th percentile among wide receiversThe Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
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