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Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 22

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-132/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -131 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Right now, the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (68.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Chiefs.

The model projects the Chiefs offense to be the 7th-quickest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 27.02 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

The Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Marquise Brown's 61.2% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a remarkable boost in his receiving ability over last year's 55.4% mark.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Eagles, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 26.4 per game) this year.

Marquise Brown's 48.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 64.2.

Marquise Brown's receiving talent has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 2.3 adjusted catches compared to 4.0 last season.

This year, the daunting Philadelphia Eagles defense has yielded a measly 61.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wideouts: the 5th-lowest rate in the league.

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Philadelphia's unit has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in the league.

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