My Account Log Out

reorder

Marquise Brown

Marquise Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Kansas City Chiefs vs Houston Texans

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-164/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +125.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 68.3% pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 136.5 plays on offense run: the most out of all the games this week.

The Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.5 plays per game.

In this game, Marquise Brown is expected by the projection model to place in the 75th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.2 targets.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Chiefs, who are overwhelmingly favored by 8.5 points.

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.

The predictive model expects Marquise Brown to be a less important option in his team's passing attack in this week's game (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (24.1% in games he has played).

The Houston Texans pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (58.1%) versus wideouts this year (58.1%).

More Marquise Brown Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™