Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Marquise Brown

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) since they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune.
The Cardinals are a big 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
Marquise Brown has run a route on 92.9% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
In this week's game, Marquise Brown is expected by the model to find himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.5 targets.
With an outstanding 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) this year, Marquise Brown has been among the best WRs in the game in the league.

Favors Under

The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Right now, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cardinals.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.
The Cardinals O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

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