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Marquise Brown
NFL · Player Props
Marquise Brown
WR · Arizona Cardinals
Receptions
Cleveland Browns vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 9, 2023 Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:51 AM UTC
NFL Props Marquise Brown Receptions

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +105.

Favors Over
  • The Cardinals may pass less in this game (and hand the ball off more) since they be starting backup QB Clayton Tune.
  • The Cardinals are a big 13.5-point underdog in this game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
  • Marquise Brown has run a route on 92.9% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
  • In this week's game, Marquise Brown is expected by the model to find himself in the 88th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 8.5 targets.
  • With an outstanding 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (82nd percentile) this year, Marquise Brown has been among the best WRs in the game in the league.
Favors Under
  • The Cardinals feature a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • Right now, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in football (55.3% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Cardinals.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the model to call only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.0 per game) this year.
  • The Cardinals O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
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