Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Marquise Brown

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -156.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals may lean on the pass less in this week's contest (and call more carries) since they be starting backup QB Joshua Dobbs.
At a -8.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are huge underdogs in this game, indicating much more of a reliance on passing than their standard approach.
Opposing teams have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
In this contest, Marquise Brown is anticipated by the projection model to rank in the 89th percentile among wide receivers with 8.5 targets.
Marquise Brown's 74.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive volume) has been notably higher this season than it was last season at 61.0.

Favors Under

The Cardinals have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 5.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Right now, the 2nd-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (55.7% in a neutral context) according to the projection model is the Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Arizona Cardinals are predicted by the projection model to call just 62.9 total plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
The Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all air attack stats across the board.
Marquise Brown's sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 62.8% to 54.4%.

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