Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Marquise Brown

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

An extreme passing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a big -11.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Cardinals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
The 49ers defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (39.0 per game) this year.
Marquise Brown has run a route on 93.7% of his offense's passing plays this year, placing him in the 94th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The model projects the Cardinals to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Marquise Brown's receiving skills have declined this year, notching a mere 4.0 adjusted receptions compared to 5.4 last year.
Marquise Brown's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 62.8% to 55.3%.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, San Francisco's LB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the league.

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