Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Marquise Brown

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-155/+115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Cardinals being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 66.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 3rd-most among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
With an elite 94.0% Route% (95th percentile) this year, Marquise Brown rates as one of the WRs with the most usage in the league.
The leading projections forecast Marquise Brown to accumulate 9.0 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 2.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The model projects the Cardinals to be the 9th-least pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Marquise Brown's play as a receiver has declined this year, compiling just 4.3 adjusted catches compared to 5.4 last year.
Marquise Brown's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 62.8% to 56.4%.

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