Marquise Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 8:41 PM EST

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+165/-225).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Marquise Brown's receiving skills have been refined this season, accumulating 6.9 yards per game compared to just 5.7 last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 9th-highest Completion% in football (69.4%) to wide receivers this year (69.4%).

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in football.
THE BLITZ projects Marquise Brown to be much less involved in his offense's pass game this week (17.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (26.4% in games he has played).
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.