Marquise Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 9:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 53.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.3 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
This week, Marquise Brown is projected by the projection model to find himself in the 91st percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.8 targets.
In regards to air yards, Marquise Brown grades out in the towering 88th percentile among WRs this year, totaling an impressive 96.0 per game.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point gain in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Marquise Brown has been more prominently incorporated in his team's passing offense.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The projections expect the Arizona Cardinals to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 57.4% pass rate.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all pass attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cardinals grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year.
Marquise Brown's 57.3% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a significant decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 62.8% mark.
With a lackluster 6.2 adjusted yards per target (11th percentile) this year, Marquise Brown stands among the bottom WRs in the NFL in football.