Marquise Brown Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM EST

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be starting backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs this week, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Cardinals are an enormous 7-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
The Arizona Cardinals offense has played at the 2nd-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 26.07 seconds per snap.
Marquise Brown has run a route on 92.1% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Marquise Brown to earn 7.6 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

The Arizona Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 5th-least pass-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 57.0% pass rate.
The Arizona Cardinals have played in the 5th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense performance when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.4 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in football.
Marquise Brown has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 62.9% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 25th percentile among wideouts