Marquise Brown Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Marquise Brown

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 27, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquise Brown Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+237/-365).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -299 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -365.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 133.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the most plays in football this year, totaling a colossal 64.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Marquise Brown has compiled quite a few more air yards this year (115.0 per game) than he did last year (104.0 per game).
Marquise Brown's 69.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in football.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.