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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

New Orleans Saints vs Los Angeles Rams

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -132.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the New Orleans Saints to call the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 68.9 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

While Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been responsible for 7.3% of his team's targets in games he has played this year, the model projects him to be a more integral piece of New Orleans's pass game this week at 17.0%.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, Los Angeles's group of LBs has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast the New Orleans Saints to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 56.7% pass rate.

Opposing teams teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Rams, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 31.5 per game) this year.

The New Orleans offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling profiles as one of the bottom WRs in the game this year, averaging a mere 1.0 adjusted receptions per game while grading out in the 7th percentile among wideouts.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling is positioned as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL, hauling in a measly 50.1% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 21st percentile among WRs

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