Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-175).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -170 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -175.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chiefs to pass on 61.9% of their chances: the 3rd-highest clip among all teams this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is projected by the model to have 133.2 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 7th-most in football.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 59.8% Adjusted Completion% this season shows a a noteable progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 54.3% rate.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Los Angeles's group of CBs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the 6th-worst in football.

Favors Under

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their normal game plan.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 5.6% Target Rate this year shows a a significant drop-off in his air attack utilization over last year's 12.8% rate.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 1.2 adjusted catches per game this year represents a a noteable reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 2.4 figure.

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