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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions
Player Prop Week 21

Baltimore Ravens vs Kansas City Chiefs

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 65.0% of their plays: the greatest clip on the slate this week.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is projected by our trusted projection set to have 133.4 total plays called: the most on the slate this week.

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.

The Kansas City O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this season (7.6% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (12.8%).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling's receiving talent has tailed off this season, accumulating just 1.3 adjusted catches compared to 2.4 last season.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 51.5% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 15th percentile among WRs

This year, the stout Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered a measly 59.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing wide receivers: the 5th-smallest rate in football.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's group of safeties has been phenomenal this year, ranking as the best in the NFL.

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