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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions
Player Prop Week 20

Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 63.6% of their opportunities: the highest frequency on the slate this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

This year, the porous Buffalo Bills pass defense has surrendered a staggering 70.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the biggest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Chiefs to call the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to pass too much against the Bills, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 30.8 per game) this year.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been much less involved in his team's passing offense this year (7.1% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.8%).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 1.3 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a remarkable diminishment in his receiving talent over last year's 2.4 mark.

With a poor 51.6% Adjusted Catch% (15th percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling stands as one of the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to wideouts.

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