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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +106 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Chiefs to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate among all teams this week.

As it relates to pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Kansas City Chiefs ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year.

This year, the poor Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has conceded a colossal 69.2% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wide receivers: the biggest rate in football.

As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Las Vegas's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Windy weather conditions (like the 15-mph being called for in this game) generally correlate with worse passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been much less involved in his team's passing game this season (7.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.8%).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 1.4 adjusted catches per game this year shows an impressive diminishment in his receiving ability over last year's 2.4 figure.

With a subpar 55.0% Adjusted Completion% (23rd percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to wide receivers.

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