Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 62.0% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
This year, the weak Patriots pass defense has surrendered a monstrous 66.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 10th-biggest rate in the league.
The New England cornerbacks project as the 9th-worst unit in the league this year in defending receivers.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Chiefs are favored in this week's game, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their usual game plan.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a less important option in his team's pass attack this year (7.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.8%).
With a feeble 54.0% Adjusted Completion% (22nd percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been among the most unreliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to WRs.

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