Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.4%) versus wideouts this year (73.4%).

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a much smaller part of his team's passing attack this year (7.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.8%).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's play as a receiver has worsened this year, notching a measly 1.4 adjusted receptions compared to 2.4 last year.
With a bad 53.5% Adjusted Completion% (22nd percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks among the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to wide receivers.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's CB corps has been excellent this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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