Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Raiders pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.4%) vs. wideouts this year (69.4%).
The Raiders safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this year (7.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.8%).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 1.4 adjusted catches per game this year shows a remarkable diminishment in his receiving prowess over last year's 2.4 rate.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 53.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile among wide receivers

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