Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 22

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 22, 2022

Updated Feb 12, 2023 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-400/+280).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +280.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.5% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 138.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing game stats across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has given their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing game stats across the board.

Favors Under

The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: least in the league.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been among the least sure-handed receivers in the NFL, hauling in just 54.5% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 5th percentile among WRs
The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has surrendered the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (61.8%) to wideouts this year (61.8%).
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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