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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs

 
 
 
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+108/-138).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has surrendered the 6th-highest Completion% in the NFL (69.5%) to wideouts this year (69.5%).
  • The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the worst unit in football this year in pass coverage.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Chiefs are a massive 8.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been among the worst possession receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 55.4% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 3rd percentile among WRs
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a mere 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the NFL). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
  • The Kansas City Chiefs have gone for it on 4th down just 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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