Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +165 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 67.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 133.1 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have run the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 60.7 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's possession skills have gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 54.0% to 61.4%.

Favors Under

Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 33.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 40.7.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a measly 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Kansas City Chiefs have gone no-huddle on a measly 1.8% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
The Kansas City Chiefs have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.8% of the time since the start of last season (9th-least in the NFL), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.