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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the 3rd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 66.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Kansas City Chiefs O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling's ball-catching skills have been refined this season, with his Completion% rising from 53.9% to 63.5%.

The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has conceded the 6th-highest Completion% in football (69.5%) to wide receivers this year (69.5%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chiefs are a massive 9.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 9th-least in football.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 32.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 40.7.

The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 6th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in pass coverage.

The Kansas City Chiefs have faced a stacked the box on a mere 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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