Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to pass on 68.4% of their opportunities: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 130.1 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 10.0 adjusted yards per target this year signifies a material progression in his pass-catching skills over last year's 8.9 figure.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 6.08 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season reflects a significant gain in his efficiency in space over last season's 3.3% rate.

Favors Under

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a much smaller part of his offense's air attack this season (7.2% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (12.8%).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has totaled quite a few less air yards this year (44.0 per game) than he did last year (66.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 26.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this season indicates a noteable decline in his pass-catching ability over last season's 40.0 mark.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.69 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-fewest in the league.
The Miami Dolphins safeties project as the best safety corps in the league this year in defending receivers.