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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 22

Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Our trusted projections expect the Chiefs to be the most pass-oriented offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 68.5% pass rate.

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 127.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being projected in this game) usually mean better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower run volume.

The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been much less involved in his team's passing offense this year (7.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.8%).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has compiled quite a few less air yards this season (45.0 per game) than he did last season (66.0 per game).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has put up substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (22.0) this year than he did last year (40.0).

With a poor 53.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (20th percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been among the most unreliable receivers in football among wideouts.

This year, the fierce San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed a puny 129.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing wide receivers: the 10th-best in the NFL.

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