Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-131/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -131.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Kansas City Chiefs to pass on 64.6% of their opportunities: the 2nd-greatest rate among all teams this week.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Chiefs are expected by the projection model to run 65.5 total plays in this game: the 9th-most among all teams this week.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 4.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year conveys a noteable boost in his effectiveness in the open field over last year's 3.3% figure.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has been torched for the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (73.4%) versus wideouts this year (73.4%).

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Bills defense this year: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a much smaller part of his team's passing attack this year (7.7% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (12.8%).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accrued far fewer air yards this season (51.0 per game) than he did last season (66.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accrued quite a few less adjusted receiving yards per game (22.0) this year than he did last year (40.0).
With a bad 53.5% Adjusted Completion% (22nd percentile) this year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks among the most unreliable receivers in the league when it comes to wide receivers.