Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 5th-most pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's ability to pick up extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, averaging 5.50 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 3.26 figure last season.
The Raiders pass defense has given up the 7th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (69.4%) vs. wideouts this year (69.4%).
The Raiders pass defense has not been good when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.49 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been a much smaller part of his team's passing offense this year (7.3% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (12.8%).
After accruing 66.0 air yards per game last year, Marquez Valdes-Scantling has undergone a big decline this year, now sitting at 48.0 per game.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's 24.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents an impressive decrease in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 40.0 figure.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL, completing a mere 53.9% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 22nd percentile among wide receivers