Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 17, 2022 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 43.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 45.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs as the most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has been less involved as a potential target this season (81.8% Route% in games he has played) than he did last season (71.4%).
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accrued many more receiving yards per game (54.0) this season than he did last season (35.0).

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accrued far fewer air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's ability to generate extra yardage has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 4.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 7.04 mark last season.
The Buffalo Bills defense has conceded the 9th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 142.0) vs. wide receivers this year.

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