Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+194/-288).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +220 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +194.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 136.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's possession skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 53.9% to 66.3%.
The Kansas City Chiefs O-line has afforded their quarterback 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accrued far fewer air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (81.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.
The Buffalo Bills defense has yielded the 4th-least touchdowns through the air in the league to wideouts: 0.40 per game this year.