Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Marquez Valdes-Scantling

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

WR · Kansas City Chiefs

Receiving TD

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Valdes-Scantling Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-335).

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chiefs to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 10th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Marquez Valdes-Scantling to be a more important option in his team's pass game near the goal line this week (14.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (9.3% in games he has played).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 54.0% to 59.9%.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line has afforded their QB 2.60 seconds before getting pressured (best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chiefs are a huge 8.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has accrued far fewer air yards this season (68.0 per game) than he did last season (81.0 per game).
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ranks in the 21st percentile among wide receivers when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a mere 0.08 per game.
The Denver Broncos defense has allowed the 2nd-least TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 0.50 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties grade out as the 2nd-best safety corps in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

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