Marquez Callaway Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Callaway

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receptions

New Orleans Saints vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 8, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Marquez Callaway Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+165/-234).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -189 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New Orleans Saints will be rolling with backup QB Andy Dalton this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their QB 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 57.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Marquez Callaway has been used less as a potential target this year (51.1% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (79.1%).
Marquez Callaway's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 56.6% to 51.9%.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 6th-best collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.