Marquez Callaway Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Callaway

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Callaway Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-139/+102).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 27.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Marquez Callaway to be much more involved in his team's pass attack this week (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 7.58 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-most in football.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game versus the Seattle Seahawks defense this year: 7th-least in football.
Marquez Callaway has put up far fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Marquez Callaway has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, hauling in just 56.6% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, grading out in the 9th percentile among wide receivers
Marquez Callaway has been among the weakest WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.28 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 13th percentile.