Marquez Callaway Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Marquez Callaway

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

New Orleans Saints vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 6:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Marquez Callaway Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+301/-535).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -487 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -535.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.79 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded the 3rd-highest Completion% in the league (71.3%) to wide receivers this year (71.3%).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the 9th-most passing TDs in football to wide receivers: 1.00 per game this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Marquez Callaway has accrued quite a few less air yards this season (43.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Marquez Callaway's 23.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 46.9.
Marquez Callaway's receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% falling off from 56.6% to 49.3%.
The New Orleans Saints have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The New Orleans Saints have gone for it on 4th down a measly 14.3% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.