Marquez Callaway Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Marquez Callaway

NFL · Player Props

Marquez Callaway

WR · New Orleans Saints

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New Orleans Saints · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 20, 2022 11:41 PM EST

Analysis

Marquez Callaway Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+339/-647).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +379 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +339.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Marquez Callaway to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game near the end zone this week (12.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.1% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals cornerbacks profile as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Opposing QBs have averaged 34.2 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 10th-least in football.
Marquez Callaway has compiled far fewer air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (64.0 per game).
Marquez Callaway's 21.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 46.9.
Marquez Callaway's sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 56.6% to 53.2%.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has surrendered the 3rd-least passing TDs in football to wide receivers: 0.33 per game this year.

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