Mark Ingram Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Mark Ingram

NFL · Player Props

Mark Ingram

RB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing TD

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:25 PM UTC

Analysis

Mark Ingram Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+340/-651).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +437 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +340.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 2nd-most total plays on the slate this week with 64.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers defensive ends project as the 4th-worst DE corps in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 9th-least run-centric team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 40.2% red zone run rate.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 8th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 61.3 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mark Ingram to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game near the goal line this week (33.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (61.9% in games he has played).
The New Orleans Saints O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
The New Orleans Saints have faced a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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