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Mark Ingram

Mark Ingram Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints

Mark Ingram Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+347/-670).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -540 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -670.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in football (1.12 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season.

The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 4th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Saints rank as the 8th-least run-centric offense in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 38.7% red zone run rate.

The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.

THE BLITZ projects Mark Ingram to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (20.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.5% in games he has played).

The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.

The New Orleans Saints have been faced with a stacked the box on 23.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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