Mark Ingram Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Mark Ingram

RB · New Orleans Saints

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Mark Ingram Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Saints to run the 9th-most total plays among all teams this week with 64.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Mark Ingram has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among RBs, catching a stellar 86.8% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 86th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers project as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line has allowed their quarterback 2.74 seconds before the pass (3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Saints are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints as the 8th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.9 plays per game.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a measly 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.