Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+102/-132).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +103 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens offensive blueprint to lean 3.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
In this week's game, Mark Andrews is forecasted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 97th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 7.0 targets.
When talking about pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Ravens grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year.
With a terrific 4.7 adjusted catches per game (93rd percentile) this year, Mark Andrews stands among the top TEs in the pass game in football.

Favors Under

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Ravens to pass on 51.8% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The model projects the Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.13 seconds per snap.
Mark Andrews has been much less involved in his team's pass game this year (23.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (29.9%).
This year, the imposing Cardinals defense has conceded a measly 69.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 9th-lowest rate in the NFL.