Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Mark Andrews

NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The projections expect the Ravens to run the 3rd-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 67.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
With a top-tier 92.2% Route Participation% (100th percentile) since the start of last season, Mark Andrews stands as one of the tight ends with the highest volume in the NFL.
In this contest, Mark Andrews is expected by the projections to secure a spot in the 96th percentile among tight ends with 6.9 targets.
With an outstanding 4.8 adjusted receptions per game (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Mark Andrews ranks as one of the leading pass-catching tight ends in the NFL.

Favors Under

This week's spread implies a running game script for the Ravens, who are favored by 4.5 points.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 48.7% of their plays: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
As it relates to linebackers getting after the quarterback, Pittsburgh's unit has been tremendous this year, profiling as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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