Mark Andrews Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Mark Andrews

TE · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:36 PM EST

Analysis

Mark Andrews Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.
The model projects Mark Andrews to earn 7.0 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Baltimore Ravens grades out as the 2nd-best in football this year.
Mark Andrews ranks as one of the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an excellent 5.2 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 50.1% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 27.6 per game) this year.
Mark Andrews has been a much smaller part of his team's pass game this season (23.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (29.9%).
The Browns pass defense has given up the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (68.1%) to tight ends this year (68.1%).